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 wang and zhou


Online Bayesian Risk-Averse Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the Bayesian risk-averse formulation in reinforcement learning (RL). To address the epistemic uncertainty due to a lack of data, we adopt the Bayesian Risk Markov Decision Process (BRMDP) to account for the parameter uncertainty of the unknown underlying model. We derive the asymptotic normality that characterizes the difference between the Bayesian risk value function and the original value function under the true unknown distribution. The results indicate that the Bayesian risk-averse approach tends to pessimistically underestimate the original value function. This discrepancy increases with stronger risk aversion and decreases as more data become available. We then utilize this adaptive property in the setting of online RL as well as online contextual multi-arm bandits (CMAB), a special case of online RL. We provide two procedures using posterior sampling for both the general RL problem and the CMAB problem. We establish a sub-linear regret bound, with the regret defined as the conventional regret for both the RL and CMAB settings. Additionally, we establish a sub-linear regret bound for the CMAB setting with the regret defined as the Bayesian risk regret. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in addressing epistemic uncertainty and verifying the theoretical properties.


Exploratory Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization with Regime-Switching Market Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Considering the continuous-time Mean-Variance (MV) portfolio optimization problem, we study a regime-switching market setting and apply reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to assist informed exploration within the control space. We introduce and solve the Exploratory Mean Variance with Regime Switching (EMVRS) problem. We also present a Policy Improvement Theorem. Further, we recognize that the widely applied Temporal Difference (TD) learning is not adequate for the EMVRS context, hence we consider Orthogonality Condition (OC) learning, leveraging the martingale property of the induced optimal value function from the analytical solution to EMVRS. We design a RL algorithm that has more meaningful parameterization using the market parameters and propose an updating scheme for each parameter. Our empirical results demonstrate the superiority of OC learning over TD learning with a clear convergence of the market parameters towards their corresponding ``grounding true" values in a simulated market scenario. In a real market data study, EMVRS with OC learning outperforms its counterparts with the highest mean and reasonably low volatility of the annualized portfolio returns.


Discrete-Time Mean-Variance Strategy Based on Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies a discrete-time mean-variance model based on reinforcement learning. Compared with its continuous-time counterpart in \cite{zhou2020mv}, the discrete-time model makes more general assumptions about the asset's return distribution. Using entropy to measure the cost of exploration, we derive the optimal investment strategy, whose density function is also Gaussian type. Additionally, we design the corresponding reinforcement learning algorithm. Both simulation experiments and empirical analysis indicate that our discrete-time model exhibits better applicability when analyzing real-world data than the continuous-time model.


Network Revenue Management with Demand Learning and Fair Resource-Consumption Balancing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In addition to maximizing the total revenue, decision-makers in lots of industries would like to guarantee balanced consumption across different resources. For instance, in the retailing industry, ensuring a balanced consumption of resources from different suppliers enhances fairness and helps main a healthy channel relationship; in the cloud computing industry, resource-consumption balance helps increase customer satisfaction and reduce operational costs. Motivated by these practical needs, this paper studies the price-based network revenue management (NRM) problem with both demand learning and fair resource-consumption balancing. We introduce the regularized revenue, i.e., the total revenue with a balancing regularization, as our objective to incorporate fair resource-consumption balancing into the revenue maximization goal. We propose a primal-dual-type online policy with the Upper-Confidence-Bound (UCB) demand learning method to maximize the regularized revenue. We adopt several innovative techniques to make our algorithm a unified and computationally efficient framework for the continuous price set and a wide class of balancing regularizers. Our algorithm achieves a worst-case regret of $\widetilde O(N^{5/2}\sqrt{T})$, where $N$ denotes the number of products and $T$ denotes the number of time periods. Numerical experiments in a few NRM examples demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in simultaneously achieving revenue maximization and fair resource-consumption balancing


Policy Gradient and Actor-Critic Learning in Continuous Time and Space: Theory and Algorithms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study policy gradient (PG) for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space under the regularized exploratory formulation developed by Wang et al. (2020). We represent the gradient of the value function with respect to a given parameterized stochastic policy as the expected integration of an auxiliary running reward function that can be evaluated using samples and the current value function. This representation effectively turns PG into a policy evaluation (PE) problem, enabling us to apply the martingale approach recently developed by Jia and Zhou (2022a) for PE to solve our PG problem. Based on this analysis, we propose two types of actor-critic algorithms for RL, where we learn and update value functions and policies simultaneously and alternatingly. The first type is based directly on the aforementioned representation, which involves future trajectories and is offline. The second type, designed for online learning, employs the first-order condition of the policy gradient and turns it into martingale orthogonality conditions. These conditions are then incorporated using stochastic approximation when updating policies. Finally, we demonstrate the algorithms by simulations in two concrete examples.